Morikawa ready to be golden boy

Written on 07/29/2024
Alamo Golf+


 

The PGA Tour will withdraw this week to allow the Paris Olympics to take center stage.

This week, Paris will welcome 60 golfers to the tournament, which will be a non-elimination event. The tournament is a 72-hole stroke play event held at the French National Golf Club. Some of the famous golfers heading to Paris include Scottie Scheffler, Collin Morikawa, Ludwig Aberg, Jon Rahm, Joaquin Niemann, Rory McIlroy, Tommy Fleetwood, Hideki Matsuyama and Tom King.

Golf returned to the Summer Olympics after an absence of 112 years in 2016, when Justin Rose won gold in Rio. In 2020, Xander Schauffele won gold at the Japan Olympics.

Le Golf National is a par 71 golf course with a total length of 7,247 yards. It hosted the 2018 Ryder Cup, where Europe defeated the United States 17.5-10.5. The course also hosted the DP World Tour's French Open, the oldest national open in continental Europe. Le Golf National features POA/Bentgrass greens. It was designed by Robert von Hagge and is designed in a “Florida style”.

French National Golf Club (French Open) Past Champions

  • 2023: Long-lasting brightness (-14)
  • 2022: Guido Migliozzi (-16)
  • 2019: Nicholas Colsaitz (-12)
  • 2018: Alex Nolen (-7)
  • 2017: Tommy Fleetwood (-12)

In this and future articles, I will be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom models. If you would like to build your own models or see all the detailed statistics, you can sign up with promo code MATTVIN to get 25% off any subscription package (the annual subscription is the best deal).

Key statistics for Le Golf National

Let's look at five key metrics from the French National Golf Club to determine which golfers have achieved the highest scores in each category over the past 24 rounds.

Good driving percentage

Le Golf National has narrow fairways and numerous hazards. The course is not too overwhelming and is suitable for golfers who can hit the ball accurately and avoid teeing off.

Good batting averages in the last 36 rounds:

  1. Colin Morikawa (87.8%)
  2. Sepp Straka (86.7%)
  3. Scotty Scheffler (86%)
  4. Tommy Fleetwood (85%)
  5. Abraham Anser (84.8%)

Scoring: Offensive Method

The rough is thick and the greens are tricky, so players will have to focus on their approach shots if they want to win a medal in Paris.

Scores in the last 24 games: (minimum 16 points):

  1. Scotty Scheffler (+1.72)
  2. Xander Schauffele (+1.19)
  3. Pereira Myth (+0.97)
  4. Colin Morikawa (+0.89)
  5. Kevin Yu (+0.72)

Score: OTT on the “less than server” court

Justin Thomas played in the French Open at the French National Golf Club on the eve of the 2018 Ryder Cup. In an interview with the media, Justin Thomas said that he played four rounds on the course and only used the driver four times. If players want to succeed this week, they must use fewer drivers to cause more damage when serving.

Scores on “One Stroke Under” Courses in the Last 24 Rounds: OTT:

  1. Viktor Hovland (+0.95)
  2. Scotty Scheffler (+.90)
  3. Ludwig Aberg (+.82)
  4. Matsuyama Hideki (+.82)
  5. Colin Morikawa (+.73)

4. Scoring: Putting (POA/Bentgrass)

Players had to hit a lot of putts this week at Le Golf National, where the best putters dominated the field at the 2018 Ryder Cup.

Putting Strokes Gained (POA/Bentgrass) in the Last 24 Rounds

  1. Xander Schauffele (+1.11)
  2. Matt Fitzpatrick (+1.02)
  3. Wyndham Clark (+0.76)
  4. Tommy Fleetwood (+0.56)
  5. Rory McIlroy (+0.55)

Scoring: Around the Green

The greens at the National Golf Club are undulating and protected by bunkers. The course is difficult and players will inevitably miss some greens and be forced to play some tricky ups and downs.

Scores around the greens in the past 24 rounds:

  1. Matsuyama Hideki (+0.80)
  2. Nick Taylor (+0.66)
  3. Rory McIlroy (+0.62)
  4. CT Pan (+0.57)
  5. Christian Bezuidenhout (+0.51)

Paris Olympic Model Ranking

Below, I compiled an overall model ranking combining the five key statistical categories discussed earlier – Good Driving (28%), SG: Approach (28%), Strokes Gained: ARG (15%), Strokes Gained: Putting Bent Grass (15%), and Strokes Gained: Total Strokes Less Than Driving Player (14%).

  1. Colin Morikawa
  2. Scotty Scheffler
  3. Xander Schauffele
  4. Tom King
  5. Sepp Straka
  6. Corey Connors
  7. Tommy Fleetwood
  8. Viktor Hovland
  9. Alex Nolen
  10. Ludwig Aberg

Paris Olympics Highlights

Colin Morikawa +1200 (FanDuel)

For Collin Morikawa, Le Golf National is the perfect golf course. What the American lacks in distance off the tee, he makes up for with accuracy, which is key to playing well on this narrow course.

Among competitors, Morikawa ranked first in good driving percentage, fourth in approach strokes gained and fifth in strokes gained off the tee (on courses with fewer than driver). The 27-year-old did not play in the 2018 Ryder Cup, but the U.S. could certainly use a player like Morikawa in France.

Morikawa has competed in the Olympics before, finishing tied for third but losing the bronze medal after a seven-man playoff. That Olympic experience should give Colin an advantage this week.

2024 was a frustrating year for Morikawa, who was one of the best players on the PGA Tour but had yet to win during the year. Despite not winning, he performed well in big events. He finished T3 at the Masters, T4 at the PGA Championship, second at the Memorial, T14 at the U.S. Open, and T16 at the British Open.

If Morikawa can bring back an Olympic gold medal for Team USA, his season review will change dramatically, which I believe he can do.

Tommy Fleetwood +2,500 (DraftKings)

Tommy Fleetwood will return to the brightest stage of his career. The Englishman had an outstanding performance at the 2018 Ryder Cup, where he was half of the “Mollywood” team and scored four points for Europe in the match of 17.5-10.5.

In addition to his Ryder Cup performance at the National Golf Club, Fleetwood also won the French Open at the course in 2017. He excels on a course that demands high accuracy off the tee, ranking 4th in the field in Good Driving Percentage over the past 24 rounds. He enjoys putting on curved/POA greens, ranking 4th in the field in Strokes Gained: Putting Surface. Tommy also has Olympic golf experience, having tied for 16th at the 2020 Tokyo Olympics.

As we all know, Tommy has yet to win on the PGA Tour, so it would be fitting if the biggest win of his career came in a tournament this week, even though it is still uncertain whether he can win in the United States.

Alex Nolen +4,000 (DraftKings)

Alex Noren had one, if not this2024 will be the most consistent season of his career. The Swede has 12 top-25 finishes in 18 races this year, including 3 top-10 finishes.

Noren competed in the 2020 Olympics, finishing tied for 16th with three rounds in the 60s. He was also a member of the 2018 European Ryder Cup winning team, going 2-1 in three matches, including a singles win over Bryson DeChambeau.

The 41-year-old is no stranger to the French Open. He regularly plays at the course and has five top-20 finishes in his last six visits to the venue, including a win in 2018.

At the tournament, Nolen ranked 13th in Strokes Gained: Approach and 11th in Good Driving Percentage. He was also a great putter on curved/POA greens, ranking 6th in Strokes Gained: Ground Putting.

Noren finished tied for 13th in the Open and fifth in driving accuracy, so he should be confident heading into this tournament. An Olympic gold medal would be a fitting way for Noren to prove his mettle for the 2024 season.

 

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